What Confidence Scoring does
Tags selected outcomes as safe, balanced, risky, or long shot so optimization tools can explain risk more clearly.
Example: identify the speculative pick in a mixed plan
Select the outcomes you want, then label a stronger conviction pick as balanced and a speculative alternative as long shot. Review the risk-aware optimization output with those labels in mind. If a label reflects a guess rather than a tested estimate, account for that uncertainty when interpreting the recommendation.
How to use Confidence Scoring
Open Permutify and find Confidence Scoring in Input.
- Select outcomes first.
- Open Outcome Confidence.
- Assign confidence labels to the picks that need guidance.
What to check before relying on the result
Labels express your assessment. A safe label does not make an outcome certain, and confidence categories should not be read as independently verified probabilities. Review how sensitive your plan is to an incorrect assessment.
When do I assign confidence labels?
Select your outcomes first, then open Outcome Confidence and assign labels to the picks that need additional guidance.
Do confidence labels replace odds?
No. Odds describe the estimated return terms used in the plan, while confidence labels record your assessment of selected outcomes. Review both when evaluating the resulting cards.